I’m continuing to work on my detailed (admittedly taking too long) ward level analysis of the municipal election results.
The Ward 13 poll-by-poll breakdown shows that Arlene Vanderbeek barely won the Dundas polls which she’s represented for the past four years.
Vanderbeek only won the regular polls 2421 to runner-up Rich Gelder’s 2418. Add in the special polls, senior’s homes which incumbents get a lot of advantages and access, Vanderbeek’s margin increases to 49 votes, 2500 to 2451.
In the advance poll, Vanderbeek did better, 497 votes to Gelder’s 314. However, the advance poll includes rural Flamborough, making it impossible to determine how people in Dundas voted in the advance poll.
Vanderbeek won 3 of the 4 Flamborough polls, John Roberts won north Flamborough, where Rich Gelder did poorly, creating the ~900 vote margin of victory for Vanderbeek in the final result.
On the surface, we’re close to a hypothesis that Ward Boundary Reform saved Vanderbeek by adding voters who didn’t know her as their representative, and were more willing to vote for her than her own constituents.
Here’s why we can never truly know if Vanderbeek was truly saved by Ward Boundary Reform, because we don’t know what decision the other challengers would’ve made in Dundas only ward race.
My own thoughts are that we would’ve seen the same mix of candidates, all of whom knew how unpopular Vanderbeek was, and remains in Dundas.
(Note: I’m working on a mapping representation of poll-by-poll results, but this will take time)
Coleman's Notes: The Voters Who Know Vanderbeek Best Voted Against Her The Most
, Editor |
2018 Ward 13 polling map
Arlene MacFarlane is a life-long resident of the federal riding of Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale….
Steeped in tradition, surrounded by the small-town comforts of growing up in a place where everyone knows you, Ms. MacFarlane and her husband, Peter, chose to remain in Dundas where, together, they have raised their three children.
Actively involved in the local community affairs, Ms. MacFarlane served two terms on Dundas Town Council, before amalgamation, and was also Chair of the Dundas Library Board. She was a member of the Board of the Hamilton Region Conservation Authority for several years, and held positions on various local service groups, committees and boards within the riding.
Ms. MacFarlane was an active member of the Campaign teams during the past two federal elections. She was the Communications facilitator for both campaigns, and worked as the Communications Director for Russ Powers while he was this Riding’s Liberal MP in Ottawa. Recently she has been the Executive Assistant and Communications Director for both Art Samson and Russ Powers in their respective positions as the Municipal Councillor for the Community of Dundas.
http://v1.theglobeandmail.com/elections/fed2008/candidates/generated/35003_LIB.html
In case it’s not glaringly obvious, Councillor VanderBeek didn’t earn the Flamborough vote. It was a parting gift from one of two councillors to have been acclaimed since amalgamation*. Had VanderBeek not been endorsed by Pasuta, she would probably have been edged out. VanderBeek is the councillor most likely to lose in 2022 and will probably retire to avoid that spectacle.
*Ward 14 Councillor Robert Pasuta was acclaimed in 2010, Ward 11 Councillor David Mitchell in 2003.
Post-script: Councillor VanderBeek also played the classic incumbent’s advantage, direct mailing both her Ward News and her campaign literature on the same day in the week before polls opened.